100 Days of Hope and Fear: How Scotland's Referendum was by David Torrance

By David Torrance

Was once it easily a victory for worry over hope?
How did the higher jointly crusade come so as regards to wasting it?
How did the certain crusade come so as regards to profitable it?

What can the folk of Scotland – and different aspirant international locations – examine from this seismic democratic occasion? Scotland’s independence referendum on 18 September 2014 was once the main major poll in Scotland’s heritage. The a hundred days as much as 18 September was once the respectable crusade interval and the world’s media used to be looking at. David Torrance was once there all through, in entrance of the cameras, at the radio, within the newspapers, on the debates and gatherings, aware of a number of the behind-the-scenes manoeuvrings.

A passionate federalist at center, defined disparagingly via the outgoing First Minister as ‘Tory-leaning’, Torrance made a valiant try and stay ‘professionally neutral’ all through. His statement and research because the crusade went via its many twists and turns was once continuously insightful, if no longer continuously popular.

'Reading this diary again throughout the modifying strategy it was once transparent that, like (Nate) Silver (the US polling guru whose view used to be that the convinced crusade had nearly no probability of victory), I bought loads of issues incorrect (including the most likely margin of victory) but in addition many stuff commonly right. a minimum of i will be able to plead, as reporters frequently do, that i used to be most likely correct on the time.'

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Extra info for 100 Days of Hope and Fear: How Scotland's Referendum was Lost and Won

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In the presence of an irredentist-type transborder group, the self-determination norm has a much higher degree of specificity on the societal level, both mutually constraining an executive while, at the same time, allowing that decision maker the freedom “to choose the norm which best justifies his or her behavior” (Boekle et al, 1999: 10). Likewise, when contending government nationalism is involved, the weakening of perceived international constraints on aggression coupled with weaker societal-level nationalism creates a similarly indeterminate outcome.

In doing so, the theory makes a case for the viability of an empirical approach that treats demographic variables as proxies for underlying normative considerations that breed varying levels of conflict. 3 Specificity refers to the degree of clarity with which a norm can be said to prescribe (or proscribe) state behavior. Commonality describes the size of the worldwide audience that accepts a norm as a prescription of appropriate state behavior. Norms of low specificity or commonality are useless as theoretical constructs, as they are too narrowly observed or too vague to systematically affect state behavior.

Although the later empirical analysis uses politicized ethnicities as “units of analyses,” the political mechanisms underlying group interactions, in lieu of a better term, can best be described as nationalist. A major purpose of this chapter has been to establish why actualizing nationalist goals becomes a common preference among a national group. Nationalism represents the drive of culturally similar and politically active groups to mitigate the influence of foreign influence upon them. The desire for national self-determination, which begins under varied historical circumstances when national awareness comes about for different groups, is perpetuated culturally from generation to generation through norms of reciprocal obligation, which allow collective action to take place.

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