Expert Judgment and Expert Systems by Kenneth R. Hammond (auth.), Jeryl L. Mumpower, Ortwin Renn,

By Kenneth R. Hammond (auth.), Jeryl L. Mumpower, Ortwin Renn, Lawrence D. Phillips, V. R. R. Uppuluri (eds.)

This quantity is an outgrowth of a NATO complicated learn Workshop on "Expert Judgment and professional Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. help for the Workshop used to be supplied by means of the NATO department of medical Affairs, the U.S. military study Institute, and the U.S. nationwide technological know-how beginning. The Workshop introduced jointly researchers from the fields of psychology, choice research, and synthetic intelligence. the needs have been to evaluate similarities, variations, and complementarities one of the 3 ways to the examine of specialist judgment; to guage their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to suggest ecocnomic linkages among them. all the papers within the current quantity is directed towards a number of of these objectives. we want to convey our appreciation and due to the subsequent individuals for his or her help and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.

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In particular, affective thinking may be important in the formation of generalizations about heterogeneous multiple events [9]. Hence from the flow of conscious thought, affective thought takes a special kind of generalized understanding. In a sense, these generalized understandings which go by the name of gut feelings, impressions etc. are some of the most important facets of how managers make decisions. The NATO ASI Series, Vol. F35 Expert Judgment and Expert Systems Edited by J. Mumpower et aI.

845. , that the redundancy should have a constant value. Usefu! R. 046 (acceptable). R. 117. 125 ! R. R. R. 105 1 1 1 1 1 1 ) The inconsistency is increased. R. 099. R. 124. R. 135. An Inconsistent Matrix and Its Corresponding consistent Matrix A (~/5 = 1/9 5 1 1/3 C. R. 052 and we have: 5 1 1/3 The scale 2x reverses ranks: x = n: 1-9 Scale 1 (1/2 1/3 3 1/6 1 3 c. 1 R. 176 1/2 1 1 C. R. 065 and some ranks are reversed. , with the composite priority of its criterion to the sums of the products of the random consistency index for that order matrix with the composite priority of the corresponding criterion (as used in the numerator).

Finally the process allows for inconsistency in judgments. Everyone would like to have a theory that tolerates a modicum of inconsistency without rejecting the final results. In addition, 30 a group of people working together (or against each other) use the process to test the effect of incompatibility in perceptions and judgments on the final outcome. A final comment about foundations and axioms underlying the process: Because the process deals with ratio scales rather than interval scales, with consistency rather than transitivity, and because it is concerned with making choices by preserving the rank order of alternatives despite inconsistency and, hence, does not prejudge what is a relevant alternative, a different set of axioms than those customarily used in utility theory has been necessary.

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