Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (Volume 5) by National Intelligence Council

By National Intelligence Council

Worldwide tendencies 2030 is meant to stimulate wondering the quick and immense geopolitical adjustments characterizing the realm this day and attainable international trajectories over the subsequent 15 years. the area of 2030 may be notably reworked from our global at the present time. by means of 2030, no country—whether the U.S., China, or the other huge country—will be a hegemonic energy. The empowerment of people and diffusion of strength between states and from states to casual networks can have a dramatic effect, principally reversing the historical upward push of the West considering the fact that 1750, restoring Asia's weight within the worldwide economic climate, and ushering in a brand new period of "democratization" on the foreign and household point. as well as person empowerment and the diffusion of kingdom strength, we think that different megatrends will form our international out to 2030: demographic styles, particularly swift getting older; and transforming into source calls for which, within the circumstances of meals and water, may bring about scarcities. those developments, that are almost sure, exist this day, yet throughout the subsequent 15-20 years they are going to achieve a lot larger momentum. Underpinning the megatrends are tectonic shifts - serious adjustments to key good points of our worldwide surroundings that might impact how the realm "works" extensive study, particular modeling and numerous analytical instruments drawn from public, inner most and educational resources have been hired within the creation of this record.

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Extra resources for Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (Volume 5)

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Ideas of scientific reason, individualism, secular government, and primacy of law to societies seeking the West’s material progress but reluctant to sacrifice their cultural identites and political traditions. Managing the intensifying interaction of traditional political, religious, and cultural norms with the ideologies of the globalizing West will be a core challenge for many rapidly developing societies, affecting prospects for global and domestic governance and economic performance through 2030.

Absent a virulent pandemic (see box on page 14), global deaths from all communicable diseases— including AIDS, diarrhea, malaria, and respiratory infections—are projected to decline by nearly 30 percent by 2030, according to our modeling and other studies. AIDS appears to have hit its global peak— around 2 million deaths per year—in 2004. Great strides are being made toward wiping out malaria, but past periods of progress have sometimes given way in the face of donor fatigue and growing disease resistance to treatment.

By 2030, this arc will have contracted (see map on page 22). Due to fertility declines that are well under way today, the tally of countries with youthful populations is projected to fall to about 50 by 2030. a four Population age structures Age profiles of Japan illustrating the four categories of population age structures: Youthful, 1935 100+ 5-yr groups male 0-4 7 6 5 4 female 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Percentage of total population The first globalization of the late 19th and early 20th centuries saw a massive movement of people within the European continent and from Europe to the New World.

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