Monetary Policy and the Oil Market by Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

By Naoyuki Yoshino, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

While oil rate fluctuations some time past may be defined by way of natural provide elements, this publication argues that it really is financial coverage that performs an important position in environment international oil costs. it's a key issue frequently overlooked in a lot of the sooner literature at the determinants of asset costs, together with oil costs. even though, this e-book provides a framework for modeling oil costs whereas incorporating financial coverage. It additionally presents a whole theoretical foundation of the determinants of crude oil costs and the transmission channels of oil shocks to the economic climate. furthermore, utilizing numerous up to date surveys and examples from the true global, this ebook offers perception into the empirical part of power economics. The empirical experiences provide causes for the influence of financial coverage on crude oil costs in several classes together with through the subprime loan hindrance of 2008–2009, the influence of oil rate adaptations on built and rising economies, the effectiveness of economic coverage within the jap economic climate incorporating strength costs, and the macroeconomic affects of oil rate activities in trade-linked circumstances. This must-know info on energy

economics is gifted in a reader-friendly layout with no being overloaded with over the top and complex calculations.

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Example text

For these purposes, we developed a New Keynesian model for an open economy with a microeconomic foundation for two economies: (i) energy consumers and (ii) energy producers. We used this model to evaluate how oil prices affect the macroeconomic variables of output and inflation from 1960 to 2011. For the first purpose, to determine the channels of transmission of higher oil prices to the macroeconomy, we assume that in the New Keynesian model that we developed, oil price changes can be transmitted through two channels to macroeconomic variables.

5 IS ¼ investment/savings; LM ¼ liquidity preference/money supply equilibrium. 2 Impact of Expansionary Monetary Policy on Crude Oil Prices 13 investment demand until the marginal productivity of capital is equalized to a lower interest rate. The expansion of investment creates an accelerator-multiplier effect, causing aggregate demand to expand. This expansion of aggregate demand amplifies demand for commodities and puts pressure on commodity prices. This could be generalized for energy carriers as well, especially crude oil.

In addition to the lack of theoretical foundation behind the analyses contained in these papers, they often contradict each other when it comes to the issue of whether the supply of economy (aggregate supply) or demand side of the economy (aggregate demand) is affected more by increases in the oil price. Research in the early 1980s tended to indicate that the supply side of the economy was more heavily impacted by changes in the oil price, but recent research often states that the demand side of the economy takes more of the brunt.

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