By Joseph M. Keck
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Extra resources for Social Cost of Carbon Estimates for Regulatory Impact Analysis: Development and Technical Assessment
15 Second, the socio-economic trajectories associated with a 550 ppm CO2e concentration scenario are not derived from an assessment of what policy is optimal from a benefit-cost standpoint. Rather, it is indicative of one possible future outcome. g. 16 We chose not to include socioeconomic trajectories that achieve even lower GHG concentrations at this Technical Support Document 21 time, given the difficulty many models had in converging to meet these targets. 9 trillion (in 2005 dollars using market exchange rates) in 2010, 2020, and 2030, respectively.
29 For example, scientists may develop crops that are better able to withstand higher and more variable temperatures. Although DICE and FUND have both calibrated their agricultural sectors under the assumption that farmers will change land use practices in response to climate change (Mastrandrea, 2009), they do not take into account technological changes that lower the cost of this adaptation over time. On the other hand, the calibrations do not account for increases in climate variability, pests, or diseases, which could make adaptation more difficult than assumed by the IAMs for a given temperature change.
During the course of our modeling, it became apparent that there are several areas in particular need of additional exploration and research. These caveats, and additional observations in the following section, are necessary to consider when interpreting and applying the SCC estimates. Incomplete treatment of non-catastrophic damages. The impacts of climate change are expected to be widespread, diverse, and heterogeneous. In addition, the exact magnitude of these impacts is uncertain because of the inherent complexity of climate processes, the economic behavior of current and future populations, and our inability to accurately forecast technological change and adaptation.