The Future of Housing Markets: A New Appraisal by Leland S. Burns, Leo Grebler

By Leland S. Burns, Leo Grebler

This book's name betrays without delay that it belongs within the forecast literature. Peering into the long run is a notoriously treacherous enterprise. however, it has turn into a prac­ tice endemic to the enterprise and executive worlds in addition to to academia, specially economics. we love to be­ lieve that the large development of forecasting within the face of a few disappointments displays genuine wishes of selection­ makers (as good because the basic public's well-warranted interest in regards to the future). model on my own may hardly ever clarify the sustained bring up out there for forecast providers up to now few many years. a few pros insist on positive differences be­ tween the forecast, the projection, the prediction-and the prophecy. the diversities are extra semantic than genuine, because the necessary lodge to Webster confirms. The access "forecast" comprises references to prediction and prophecy with out differentiation, whereas "projection" is outlined, between different issues, as prediction or "advance estimate." We use typically the time period projections simply because v PREFACE vi a lot of our statistical learn is predicated on ahead es­ timates of inhabitants and families by way of the U.S. Bu­ reau of the Census which the bureau itself, the best fountain of knowledge on the planet, files as projections.

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Extra resources for The Future of Housing Markets: A New Appraisal

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Other prospective changes in the age composition of householders are less significant for housing markets. Households headed by persons in the 55-64 age bracket will account for a decreasing portion of the total, and those headed by seniors (65 and over) will have a rather stable share. The inventory data analyzed so far mask far greater periodic changes in the distribution of households by age of head. 4, where averages of the Band D projections are used. 1 million in the 1950s to 9 million in the 1970s, and their share in total household growth from 12% to as much as 52%.

The inventory data analyzed so far mask far greater periodic changes in the distribution of households by age of head. 4, where averages of the Band D projections are used. 1 million in the 1950s to 9 million in the 1970s, and their share in total household growth from 12% to as much as 52%. Under the projections, the numbers and proportions will decline precipitiously in the 1980s and become negative in the early 199Os. The opposite trends for middle-aged householders again appear in sharp relief.

The census data meet these requirements in entirely adequate fashion. The "middle series" of their several population projections is used throughout the analysis. The differences resulting from the adoption of the lowest and highest series, discussed in Appendix A, are quite small for the forecast period. 1 shows, the reversal has already begun. 4 million 5 years before that. Looking ahead, the number of young adults will decrease after 1985. Although the 61 million estimated for the year 2000 still exceeds the 1975 level, the reversed growth trend of the young adult generation is critical to the future course of housing demand.

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