The Future of Man. Proceedings of a Symposium Held at the by F. J. Ebling, G. W. Heath

By F. J. Ebling, G. W. Heath

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Geogr. No. 49. Central Unit for Environmental Planning (1969). , London. HOMO SAPIENS AND HIS ACTIVITIES 35 Editorial, Nature (1971). 229, 147-148. Office of Health Economics (1969). "Medicines in the 1990's, A Technological Forecast", Office of Health Economics, London. Page, J. K. (1970). Futures, 2(3), 215-221. Royal Commission on Local Government in England (1969). Report Vol. , London, The Concept of a Natural Resource J. N. BLACK Department of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland A recent essay, "The Watershed—Ecosystem Concept and Studies of Nutrient Cycles", by Bormann and Likens begins with the words: "The operation of a factory is somewhat analogous to the utilization of land for agricultural purposes, from intensive agriculture to forest management.

This will imply an TABLE X Estimated proportion of non-working males and females pensionable age, males 6$ -f > females 6o - j - , in Great ig6y-ig8i Year Working population 1967 1971 1981 1991 25,603 25,600 26,388 28,200* above present Britain, Activity rate Pensioners to be assumed supported per for persons of economically pensionable age active person f 15-0% 15-2% 1*7% 14-5% •273 •290 •306 •291 * Very approximate estimate by author. f The economically active persons include those active persons of pensionable age.

The Bobbins suggestion for 1981 was half a million, but recent tendencies according to Nature (January 15th, 1971) suggest there will be room for 727,000 students. " The present cost of higher education is 1-5% of the gross national product. I t is a challenge to biological science to help make higher education become more efficient. GROWTH OF OLDER AGE GROUPS Figure 12 shows the increase of projected population of people above the present pensionable age up to 1991. On present medical trends, the population in England and Wales of 75 and over is expected by 1991 to increase by 811,000 to produce an expected 7 5 + population of over 3 million, two-thirds of whom will be women.

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